Buckle Up, Silicon Valley
August 3, 2017
In the 1980’s blockbuster Back to the Future, flying cars are an ubiquitous reality in the then far-away future of 2015. While that concept seems just as futuristic today as it did a generation ago, the autonomous self-driving car has quickly moved from prototype to reality here in Silicon Valley.
With the average car moving just 5% of the time, Google, Tesla, Uber and a number of Bay Area start-ups are competing to develop a winning shared economy solution. In the last year alone, Uber tested its first autonomous vehicles in Pittsburgh (and then briefly in San Francisco); the self-driving truck company Otto made its first delivery; self-driving tractors began plowing fields; Google spun-off Waymo, their self-driving car division; GM partnered with Lyft on an electric self-driving car; and Tesla announced that its new cars would be fully capable of driving themselves by the end of 2017.
Given the intensity of the current research and development effort, it is expected that within a generation, the debate will be whether humans should be allowed to take control of the wheel at all. By the year 2025, it is now predicted that the majority of transportation in cities with temperate weather may likely be on demand, shared and likely autonomous. And for those fortunate enough to participate in this transportation sea-change, the effective cost of car ownership is estimated to fall over this period by almost 75%.
Eventually, owning a car will no longer be necessary or even cost effective for most of the country. Location and distance will no longer be the barriers they are today as designated self-driving car lanes will allow these vehicles to safely travel at speeds well in excess of 100 mph. A commute from Sacramento to San Francisco will occur in about 45 minutes and you may opt to drive to Los Angeles rather than fly, particularly without the hassle of long security lines. With fewer cars required per person, city planners will begin reconstructing downtowns, turning some thoroughfares into pedestrian walkways – and some parking lots… into parks. Steering wheels will disappear and car interiors will evolve to look more like comfortable living rooms. Ultimately, accidents will dramatically decrease, making the need for heavy steel protective beams, bumpers and seat belts obsolete – creating lighter, more fuel efficient vehicles.
While it is too early to pick the ultimate winners and losers in the stock market, there will certainly be significant disruption in the world along the way, particularly for the almost 4 million people in this country who drive for a living. The automotive industry may well be under pressure as it adjusts to far fewer cars needed per family – and people will likely stop caring about luxury or performance car brands. Airlines will be challenged by high-speed cars over their shorter-haul routes. And real estate industry trends will have to adjust to changing land use patterns – as reverse urbanization unfolds for the first time in close to a hundred years.
And one day, your grandchildren will likely ask you what it was like to actually drive a car. While some of you will miss the control – and enjoyment – you will likely respond that it was unnecessarily dangerous, very wasteful and they are lucky to have a better way of life. But of course by then, they will be focused on how to borrow your new flying car for the weekend.
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